Roseau, Dominica – May 26, 2024
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an above-normal level of activity. This outlook, which spans from June 1 to November 30, signals an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA’s projections include 17 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). Furthermore, 4 to 7 of these hurricanes could escalate into major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
This heightened activity is attributed to several factors: near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and decreased wind shear. These conditions collectively create a favorable environment for tropical storm formation.
Preparation and Safety Tips for the Caribbean
With an active hurricane season anticipated, it is crucial for residents of the Caribbean to prepare thoroughly. Here are essential safety tips to help you and your family stay safe:
- Create an Emergency Plan: Ensure all family members know the evacuation routes and have a designated meeting spot. Plan for pets and elderly family members.
- Assemble an Emergency Kit: Include items such as non-perishable food, water (one gallon per person per day for at least three days), medications, flashlight, batteries, first aid supplies, and important documents.
- Stay Informed: Monitor local news and weather updates. Follow reliable sources such as your local Met Office or the National Hurrican Center @NWS and @NHC_Atlantic on Twitter for real-time information.
- Secure Your Home: Install storm shutters or board up windows, secure loose outdoor items, and ensure your roof is in good condition to withstand strong winds.
- Know Your Shelter Locations: Identify the nearest hurricane shelters and have multiple options in case the primary one is full or inaccessible.
- Backup Power: Have a generator or alternative power source ready, and know how to use it safely.
- Review Your Insurance: Check your homeowners or renters insurance to ensure it covers hurricane damage. Consider flood insurance if you are in a flood-prone area.
With the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecasted to be highly active, it is imperative to take proactive steps in preparation. By following the recommended safety tips and staying informed through reliable sources, you can help ensure the safety and well-being of your family and community
